Build from the back

Oops!!

No cryptic start to the title of this blog. It is about what it says it's about. Liverpool remain in my view a team in transition, despite Brendan Rodgers telling The Mirror this week that he thinks he's solved Liverpool's "Top-four puzzle". Perhaps he knows something we don't? I hope so. Reported over the last couple of days has been the possible signing of Sunderland 'keeper Simon Mignolet.

If Rodgers can get Mignolet on board, then he may well be right. The finishing table from last season shows The Reds a creditable seventh, just two points away from the blue-noses across the way. In other words, a win or two draws short of sixth. You probably know where I'm going with this. Pepe Reina is rumored to be leaving for Barcelona this year, and I think that could be a good move for both Reina and Liverpool. Errors against Man City, Arsenal and Tottenham among others' individual mistakes cost the team dear and I think it's time for a change between the sticks. 

I checked some stats for both Mignolet and Reina and they make interesting reading. The shots faced to goals conceded is telling. According to thescore.com Reina's ratio shows that out of 292 shots he was  beaten 34 times. Or 11.6% of all shots bulging the net. On the other hand, Mignolet, played more games but let in 54 goals having faced 524 strikes. Remember, he was playing for Sunderland, bless him! These numbers give us a return of 10.3% which considering he was clearly overworked speaks volumes for his ability. 

There are another two areas I looked at which indicate that perhaps Reina has, quite literally, taken his eye off the ball. He's been at fault for at least, arguably six points this season. Against Citeh and the Gooners, valuable points were lost through errors. A glance at Reina's stats show a steady increase over the last three seasons to reach six howlers last term. If I wanted to be pedantic, I'd say that was six points right there. Not enough for European qualification but a place higher nonetheless. Mignolet on the other hand has an error count of just two. Notwithstanding the fact the poor lad didn't get a moment's rest! Add to that the fact that Reina has missed 32% or 10 of his 41 crosses compared to Mignolet's 6% or 3 of the 50 crosses he's had to intercept and you get the picture.

Unlike David James, who I believe Liverpool let go before his peak, it's probably time for Peps to move on. I wouldn't say he's past it, but I get the impression that he's not as happy at Liverpool these days as he has been in the past. Is it any coincidence that since the speculation linking him with a move to Barcelona, his form has steadily declined? I'd say, his heart is definitely not in it anymore. To be fair to him, he started out at Barcelona and the chance to return there as number one and follow in his old man's footsteps must be a hard one to resist. On the other hand, Mignolet at 25 has his best years ahead of him and is in the kind of form Reina was showing three or four seasons ago.

Pepe Reina will be sorely missed because he has been a relatively consistent performer over the time he's been at Liverpool but if Rodgers is intending to push for a top four spot next season, then he could do a lot worse than bringing Mignolet in to shore up the last line of defence. With the additions made to the attack, he still has work to do with the rest of the defence. Kolo "tree-trunk legs" Toure is a more than worthwhile signing in my opinion but we still need more cover. You know, build from the back, so to speak.

Follow me on Twitter @Mrbengreen

In Brendan I trust!

"I haven't done that badly, guys!"

It's been over a year since I last "blogged" about Liverpool . I recall the last piece was "Liverpool forward Suarez must leave following handshake fiasco". Nothing new there then! I still believe this to be the case. Maybe replace "handshake" with "bite"... Same old. Anyway I stop here where that particular liability is concerned, and focus on another. The average LFC fan. You know the one, crowing on about the "old days", and how Liverpool "should be challenging..." etc. The most bizarre one being that Brendan Rodgers "must go", whilst implying that he's out of his depth blah blah blah... Closet Newcastle supporters maybe?

Now I don't claim to be able to read the future or be a slave to the past, but one cannot deny that the two are directly correlated if applied correctly. Events from the past can and generally do indicate what the future holds. In the same way that a weather forecast is (for the most part) reasonably correct by looking at past data. Don't forget Bill Shankly didn't win anything at Liverpool, other than promotion for, what four or five seasons? I'm not sure what happened after that. It's all in the past now anyway!

If we apply that logic to Liverpool, I think Mr. L.F.C. Averagefan,  as we'll call him, may be pleasantly surprised. If you look back over the years, most successful teams have achieved that through two factors. Continuity and stability. It's not simply down to having the most money to buy the best players. Those things are important but they don't appear overnight. They come through giving everybody involved time to develop. Not just players, but perhaps more importantly, the manager and his staff. Take the Liverpool managers since Joe Fagan, those that done best were at the club for at least five years and had over 300 games in charge. The closest exception was Roy Evans but he had 226 or 244 if you include the 18 in his "partnership" with Gérard Houllier. Between Kenny Dalglish, Evans, Houllier and Rafa Benitez, the win ratio was around 55%. The other incumbents of the hot seat managed 43% from the same amount of managers. I haven't included "Caretakers". I know statistics can be bent in all manner of ways, but even Stevie Wonder (no disrespect to the musical legend) would see there is a clear pattern here.

In times of transition, which Liverpool obviously are, we all have to be grateful for small mercies. In this sense, Mr. L. F. C. Averagefan has to ask himself: Where did Liverpool finish in the 2011/12 season? And where did they finish in the 2012/13 season? Rodgers has most definitely improved the side. They're one position higher - as I said "...small mercies..." - they've scored almost twice as many goals whilst conceding only three more, and again our friend Mr. Wonder can observe that Rodgers' Liverpool side have played some of the most entertaining and attacking football we've seen since the Roy Evans' days. To confirm what I said about stats, Benitez may have been more successful but his brand of footie wasn't exactly the most enthralling you'll ever see.

Rodgers has managed to get remarkable improvements from at least a couple of players who many Liverpool fans, myself included and I won't deny it,  would have sold for two bob at the beginning of last season, namely Jordan Henderson who finished the term as arguably one of the most effective midfielders in the Premiership, let alone Liverpool and Stewart Downing who would himself admit, has played his best football since joining the club. Transfers in have been massively encouraging especially Daniel Sturridge and Phillippe Coutinho. The introduction and progress of the youngsters Andre Wisdom and Raheem Sterling among others - worthy of nothing less than praise and credit where it is definitely due.

As we embark on another close-season of transfer speculation, pre-season friendlies, (traditionally) over-inflated expectations of the season ahead, my words of advice to Mr. L.F.C. Averagefan is to get behind the team. Support the manager, the players and look at the wider picture. I'm not convinced Liverpool will qualify for the Champion's League next season either, but to be honest, another couple of places up the league, European qualification and some good entertaining football in doing so will be enough for me.

Follow me on Twitter @Mrbengreen